Development of lab score system for predicting COVID-19 patient severity: A retrospective analysis.

AIM: To develop an accurate lab score based on in-hospital patients' potent clinical and biological parameters for predicting COVID-19 patient severity during hospital admission. METHODS: To conduct this retrospective analysis, a derivation cohort was constructed by including all the available biological and clinical parameters of 355 COVID positive patients (recovered = 285, deceased = 70), collected in November 2020-September 2021. For identifying potent biomarkers and clinical parameters to determine hospital admitted patient severity or mortality, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve and Fischer's test analysis was performed. Relative risk regression was estimated to develop laboratory scores for each clinical and routine biological parameter. Lab score was further validated by ROC curve analysis of the validation cohort which was built with 50 COVID positive hospital patients, admitted during October 2021-January 2022. RESULTS: Sensitivity vs. 1-specificity ROC curve (>0.7 Area Under the Curve, 95% CI) and univariate analysis (p<0.0001) of the derivation cohort identified five routine biomarkers (neutrophil, lymphocytes, neutrophil: lymphocytes, WBC count, ferritin) and three clinical parameters (patient age, pre-existing comorbidities, admitted with pneumonia) for the novel lab score development. Depending on the relative risk (p values and 95% CI) these clinical parameters were scored and attributed to both the derivation cohort (n = 355) and the validation cohort (n = 50). ROC curve analysis estimated the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the derivation and validation cohort which was 0.914 (0.883-0.945, 95% CI) and 0.873 (0.778-0.969, 95% CI) respectively. CONCLUSION: The development of proper lab scores, based on patients' clinical parameters and routine biomarkers, would help physicians to predict patient risk at the time of their hospital admission and may improve hospital-admitted COVID-19 patients' survivability.

Viral Inactivation and Biocompatibility Study of Electrically Activated Water Mist.

In addition to the ongoing global problem of healthcare-acquired infections, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to pose a serious threat to the health of the global population. This unprecedented pandemic situation has reinforced the need for the development of technologies that can curb the transmission of viruses among human beings and help to control the infection. Existing disinfection techniques using either ultraviolet light or harsh chemicals pose safety risks and are not suitable for use in the presence of humans. Thus, the need for a safe and effective disinfection technique that can be used in the presence of humans to control viral transmission is evident. A technique that can continuously disinfect air and surfaces in indoor environments, where the chances of viral transmission are high, can be an indispensable tool to fight such a pandemic. The Airlens Minus Corona (AMC) device provided by Persapien Innovations has been developed to achieve this goal. In this study, the antiviral functionality and biocompatibility of AMC were evaluated. Activated water mist (AWM) generated from this device was tested in vitro and in vivo for its toxicity to cell lines and in animal model. The AWM was found to be non-cytotoxic to L-929 cell lines and had no sign of clinical toxicity in an animal model (rabbit). This device was further used to inactivate animal viruses and bacteriophages. The AWM was found to be effective in the complete inactivation of influenza A H1N1 virus within 5 minutes of direct treatment. This device was also found to be effective in inactivating >90% of bacteriophage particles.

Cohort profile: Indian Network of Population-Based Surveillance Platforms for Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses among the Elderly (INSPIRE).

PURPOSE: We describe here a multicentric community-dwelling cohort of older adults (>60 years of age) established to estimate incidence, study risk factors, healthcare utilisation and economic burden associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in India. PARTICIPANTS: The four sites of this cohort are in northern (Ballabgarh), southern (Chennai), eastern (Kolkata) and western (Pune) parts of India. We enrolled 5336 participants across 4220 households and began surveillance in July 2018 for viral respiratory infections with additional participants enrolled annually. Trained field workers collected data about individual-level and household-level risk factors at enrolment and quarterly assessed frailty and grip strength. Trained nurses surveilled weekly to identify acute respiratory infections (ARI) and clinically assessed individuals to diagnose acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) as per protocol. Nasal and oropharyngeal swabs are collected from all ALRI cases and one-fifth of the other ARI cases for laboratory testing. Cost data of the episode are collected using the WHO approach for estimating the economic burden of seasonal influenza. Handheld tablets with Open Data Kit platform were used for data collection. FINDINGS TO DATE: The attrition of 352 participants due to migration and deaths was offset by enrolling 680 new entrants in the second year. All four sites reported negligible influenza vaccination uptake (0.1%-0.4%), low health insurance coverage (0.4%-22%) and high tobacco use (19%-52%). Ballabgarh had the highest proportion (54.4%) of households in the richest wealth quintile, but reported high solid fuel use (92%). Frailty levels were highest in Kolkata (11.3%) and lowest in Pune (6.8%). The Chennai cohort had highest self-reported morbidity (90.1%). FUTURE PLANS: The findings of this cohort will be used to inform prioritisation of strategies for influenza and RSV control for older adults in India. We also plan to conduct epidemiological studies of SARS-CoV-2 using this platform.

Covid-19 Infection in India: A Comparative Analysis of the Second Wave with the First Wave.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is considered as the most dreaded disease that has spread all over the world in the recent past. Despite its outbreak in December 2019-January 2020, a few continents and countries such as India started to experience a significant number of COVID-19-positive cases from March 2020. GISAID clade variation analysis in the period March 2020-February 2021 (period I) and March 2021-first week of April 2021 (period II) showed a rapid variation of SARS-CoV-2 in all continents and India over time. Studying the relationship of patient age or gender with viral clades in these two periods revealed that the population under 10 years of age was the least affected, whereas the 11-60-year-old population was the most affected, irrespective of patient gender and ethnicity. In the first wave, India registered quite a low number of COVID-19-positive cases/million people, but the scenario unexpectedly changed in the second wave, when even over 400,000 confirmed cases/day were reported. Lineage analysis in India showed the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants, i.e., B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2, during April-May 2021, which might be one of the key reasons for the sudden upsurge of confirmed cases/day. Furthermore, the emergence of the new variants contributed to the shift in infection spread by the G clade of SARS-CoV-2 from 46% in period II to 82.34% by the end of May 2021. Along with the management of the emergence of new variants, few factors viz., lockdown and vaccination were also accountable for controlling the upsurge of new COVID-19 cases throughout the country. Collectively, a comparative analysis of the scenario of the first wave with that of the second wave would suggest policymakers the way to prepare for better management of COVID-19 recurrence or its severity in India and other countries.

Emergence of Novel Coronavirus and COVID-19: whether to stay or die out?

The last century has witnessed several assaults from RNA viruses, resulting in millions of death throughout the world. The 21st century appears no longer an exception, with the trend continued with escalated fear of SARS coronavirus in 2002 and further concern of influenza H5N1 in 2003. A novel influenza virus created the first pandemic of the 21st century, the pandemic flu in 2009 preceded with the emergence of another deadly virus, MERS-CoV in 2012. A novel coronavirus "SARS-CoV-2" (and the disease COVID-19) emerged suddenly, causing a rapid outbreak with a moderate case fatality rate. This virus is continuing to cause health care providers grave concern due to the lack of any existing immunity in the human population, indicating their novelty and lack of previous exposure. The big question is whether this novel virus will be establishing itself in an endemic form or will it eventually die out? Endemic viruses during circulation may acquire mutations to infect naïve, as well as individual with pre-existing immunity. Continuous monitoring is strongly advisable, not only to the newly infected individuals, but also to those recovered individuals who were infected by SARS-CoV-2 as re-infection may lead to the selection of escape mutants and subsequent dissemination to the population.